Are Twitter users equal in predicting elections? A study of user groups in predicting 2012 US Republican Presidential Primaries

TitleAre Twitter users equal in predicting elections? A study of user groups in predicting 2012 US Republican Presidential Primaries
Publication TypeConference Paper
Year of Publication2012
AuthorsLu Chen, Wenbo Wang, Amit Sheth
Conference NameSocInfo 2012
Pagination379-392
Date Published12/2012
PublisherSpringer Berlin Heidelberg
Conference LocationLausanne, Switzerland
KeywordsContent Type, Electoral Prediction, Engagement Degree, Political Preference, Social Intelligence, Tweet Mode, Twitter Analytics, User Categorization
Abstract

Existing studies on predicting election results are under the assumption that all the users should be treated equally. However, recent work shows that social media users from different groups (e.g., silent majority vs. vocal minority) have significant differences in the generated content and tweeting behaviour. The effect of these differences on predicting election results has not been exploited yet. In this paper, we study the spectrum of Twitter users who participate in the online discussion of 2012 U.S. Republican Presidential Primaries, and examine the predictive power of different user groups (e.g., highly engaged users vs. lowly engaged users, right-leaning users vs. left-leaning users) against Super Tuesday primaries in 10 states. The insights gained in this study can shed light on improving the social media based prediction from the user sampling perspective and more

DOI10.1007/978-3-642-35386-4_28
Full Text

Bibliographic Citation: Chen, Lu, Wenbo Wang, and Amit P. Sheth.  "Are Twitter users equal in predicting elections? A study of user groups in predicting 2012 US Republican Presidential Primaries." In Social Informatics, pp. 379-392. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2012.

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